It’s sometimes called Farr’s Law, named after William Farr (1807 – 1883), and it states that all epidemics — all of them — follow an epidemiological curve (also known as an epi-curve or S-curve).
These curves start out with an alarmingly steep incline. But over time, in natural progression, they slope downward and eventually flatten.
This will perhaps seem obvious, even to those who don’t know about Farr’s law, but it is clearly not obvious — because with each new epidemic, we hear the exact same thing:
“If the virus continues to spread at the current rate … ”
Reader, hear this: viruses — and this includes Covid-19, which is another SARS virus — never continue to spread at the current rate. Never.
Do you doubt it? I have good news: it’s already happened in China and South Korea, and it is continuing to happen, and it will continue to happen.
In every epidemiological curve — or epi-curve or S-curve — it IS initially like an exponential curve, before it stagnates and levels off. And this time around (almost certainly because of the internet) that was the point at which the world went berserk and is still going berserk. Yet nothing is fundamentally different.
This is why over 800 infectious-disease and medical specialists signed a letter warning against “draconian action.”
Catastrophizing is something you should always be suspicious of. Always. There is inevitably a great deal of suffering and hardship in any epidemic or pandemic, and it’s something that should never be treated lightly — never — and we haven’t leveled out yet. But fear-mongering and catastrophizing only compounds the problem.
With knowledge and understanding comes calm.
Here is a little of what you can expect next:
All the horrific lockdown measures, the state-mandated social distancing, the outrageous fear-mongering and then the government’s “swift and decisive action and efficient response” (the destruction of a 30-trillion dollar economy was minor collateral damage, understand) — these are the reasons the coronavirus has begun to fade.
In actuality, though, the only thing these horrifying measures did if anything is prolong the pandemic.