This Is Why Everything Will Ultimately Be Okay: Because Knowledge & Understanding Bring Calm

  • It’s sometimes called Farr’s Law, named after William Farr (1807 – 1883), and it states that all epidemics — all of them — follow an epidemiological curve (also known as an epi-curve or S-curve).

    These curves start out with an alarmingly steep incline. But over time, in natural progression, they slope downward and eventually flatten.

    This will perhaps seem obvious, even to those who don’t know about Farr’s law, but it is clearly not obvious — because with each new epidemic, we hear the exact same thing:

    “If the virus continues to spread at the current rate … ”

    Reader, hear this: viruses — and this includes Covid-19, which is another SARS virus — never continue to spread at the current rate. Never.

    Here is why.

    Do you doubt it? I have good news: it’s already happened in China and South Korea, and it is continuing to happen, and it will continue to happen.

    In every epidemiological curve — or epi-curve or S-curve — it IS initially like an exponential curve, before it stagnates and levels off. And this time around (almost certainly because of the internet) that was the point at which the world went berserk and is still going berserk. Yet nothing is fundamentally different.

    This is why over 800 infectious-disease and medical specialists signed a letter warning against “draconian action.”

    Catastrophizing is something you should always be suspicious of. Always. There is inevitably a great deal of suffering and hardship in any epidemic or pandemic, and it’s something that should never be treated lightly — never — and we haven’t leveled out yet. But fear-mongering and catastrophizing only compounds the problem. 

    With knowledge and understanding comes calm.

    Here is a little of what you can expect next:

    All the horrific lockdown measures, the state-mandated social distancing, the outrageous fear-mongering and then the government’s “swift and decisive action and efficient response” (the destruction of a 30-trillion dollar economy was minor collateral damage, understand) — these are the reasons the coronavirus has begun to fade.

    In actuality, though, the only thing these horrifying measures did if anything is prolong the pandemic.

    April 8th, 2020 | journalpulp | 1 Comment |

About The Author

Ray Harvey

I was born and raised in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. I've worked as a short-order cook, construction laborer, crab fisherman, janitor, bartender, pedi-cab driver, copyeditor, and more. I've written and ghostwritten several published books and articles, but no matter where I've gone or what I've done to earn my living, there's always been literature and learning at the core of my life.

One Response and Counting...

  • Doc 04.08.2020

    Can’t really disagree with this as far as it goes.

    I think you mean that we should be reassured that, in the long run, the shape of these curves describe an asymptotic return to normal. Even frogs and locusts ultimately had mercy on us.

    On the other hand, I don’t think you are counseling us to simply accept the curve. We can have at least some marginal control over some parameters if we apply critical thinking. For example, we may be able to ‘flatten’ the curve or reduce its rhythm or duration.

    I know you’re not a strict determinist any more than you are a person who accepts the position of quietism. QED your blog.

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